5: The Contrarian Nation: Americas's defining ethos, then and now

He missed on his first two high jump attempts, but cleared the bar on his third. With this last attempt, Dick Fosbury not only secured the gold medal and set a new American record, but left a lasting mark on sports history.

The Fosbury Flop, the technique of jumping head-first and backwards, went against all conventional wisdom in the sport. The maneuver was widely criticized even after Fosbury used it to win gold at the 1968 Olympic Games. But the technique eventually became the de facto standard for Olympic high jumpers.

Dick Fosbury's flaunting of the conventional wisdom is not just an Olympic success story. It is a lesson in the long history of American's defining ethos - contrarian thinking.

Truely Contrarian

To embrace contrarian thinking does not simply mean the opposite of the majority is necessarily true.

This reasoning devolves into a philosophical skepticism — a constant questioning of the possibility of knowledge. A reactionary response that runs into the same pitfalls of following the crowd and leads us further away from truth.

Dogmatically rejecting the conventional wisdom becomes dogmatic itself. And you're more likely to come across as an argumentative punk than someone seeking the truth in good faith.

In contrast to the skeptics’ rejection of the possibility of truth, the contrarian seeks to identify delusional beliefs commonly held in order to uncover a contrarian truth.

Contrarian thinking is the innovator's favorite tool. It unlocks insights and surfaces overlooked truths. American history is a testament to the value of thinking this way.

The Contrarian Nation

American history could well be told as a string of contrarian thinkers that have pulled America from one era to the next. The explorers, founders, pioneers, and innovators of each era had beliefs about the world that were not popularly accepted.

The Founding Fathers, in crafting a new nation, created a model of government that rejected the status quo of European monarchy. In a prelude piece to the Declaration of Independence, Thomas Jefferson flaunted the conventions of British politics, which insisted 'the king can do no wrong,' and directly subjected the King's policies to pointed criticism.⁽¹⁾ Jefferson finished the piece with the assertion, "the God who gave us life, gave us liberty at the same time," foreshadowing his famous words that would later appear in the Declaration.

Liberty became the foundational bedrock to a culture of growth and industry the world had not yet seen. Francis Grund said of early 19th century America, "Labor is essential to their well-being as food and raiment to a European." Americans' individualistic outlook fostered an environment of creative destruction.⁽²⁾  

Since it was a commonly held belief that "any man's son may become the equal of any other man's son."⁽³⁾ Americans embraced contrarian thoughts that allowed their society to reinvent itself rapidly. The incentives made sense. Liberty and upward mobility fostered flywheel of creative destruction.

Culturally, Americans were taught to "challenge the established order in pursuit of personal betterment and to question wisdom in pursuit of understanding."⁽⁴⁾ To be contrarians.

The tradition of contrarian innovation persisted in American history...until it didn't.

What Happened to the Future?

One of my favorite websites is WTF Happened in 1971. It is simply a list of charts that show a divergence in American society, across almost every area, right around 1970-1971.

The 1970s introduced stagflation in America. Politically, economically, and culturally. America’s creative destruction flywheel stopped spinning. This is most evident if you think about the future envisioned from the perspective of 1960s Americans. Within a lifetime, Americans experienced the Wright brothers being “first in flight” to Armstrong planting the American flag on the moon. Americans at this time had every reason to expect that growth rate to continue over the next 50 years. Surely by then we'd have space tourism and flying cars, right?

But something unexpected happened. People stopped thinking independently. Being contrarian went out of style.

The signs of the change are clear. The rise of safetyism, notably represented by the creation of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (dooming clean energy in America), the EPA, OSHA, the Occupational Safety and Health Act, and the Consumer Protection Act. To name a few.

This environment birthed the precautionary principle, which suggests, "if an action or policy has the potential to cause harm, in the absence of scientific consensus, the burden of proof falls on those advocating for the action or policy, not those opposing it."⁽⁵⁾ 

A bias for creative destruction was replaced by the primacy of safety and precaution. This is exactly opposite of contrarian thinking, which seeks to question the madness of crowds, rather than default to it.

America got off track — "We asked for flying cars, but all we got was 140 characters," as Peter Thiel famously quipped.

The Future of Contrarian Innovation in America

Recently, the contrarian ethos has been reinvigorated by American Dynamism. These modern day industrialists seek to reinvent the American national interest — defense, manufacturing, energy, and more.

Anduril and the New West

Anduril, a defense weapons technology company, is a poster child of the American Dynamism movement. Their contrarian attack on the defense industry has reshuffled the industry and inspired others to do the same across sectors.

Anduril identified two key delusional beliefs to help uncover the contrarian truth: (1) the long-standing Silicon Valley assertion that creating defense technology is unethical (2) the “Cost Plus” business model that has been a de facto standard since WWII.

The Anduril team understood that if America did not develop advanced technologies, then our enemies still would and have the upper hand as a result. This creates a moral imperative to technologically outpace genocidal-communist foes like China.

Similarly, they noticed the perversion of a capitalistic society (USA) using a centrally planned industrial model (cost plus) to battle autocratic-socialistic foes (Russia, China, Iran). The cost plus business model — the practice of prime defense contractors being compensated at a fixed rate above their costs — disincentivizes innovation and any sort of cost reduction. This runs completely counter to what we know about free market forces and economic incentives.

The company capitalized on the contrarian truth that a defensive weapons company can be ethical and outperform competitors through free market principles. Now, the 7 year old company is contracted to create autonomous fighter jets for the US Air Force.

Innovators like Palmer Lucky, the founder of Anduril, embody the defining American ethos of contrarianism.

So yeah, I'm thinking we're back.

The Everyday Contrarian

You don't have to be defense tech industrialists, nation builders, or even Olympic athletes to leverage contrarian thinking. This is applicable in our everyday lives.

Every action and system we interact with in our personal and work lives can be broken down and rethought.

Although, it can be difficult to be contrarian. The crowd is comfortable. And leaving that comfort zone could result in literal death (like Socrates) or some playful ribbing from friends — depending on the the company you keep.

When applying contrarian reasoning, it is helpful to keep the following in mind:

1. Ad Populum

   • Ad populum is the logical fallacy of claiming a truth or affirming validity because many people think so. “Well everyone thinks this, so it must be right”

2. Chesterton's Fence

   • Chesterton's Fence refers to the importance of understanding the history and purpose of the established order before making any changes.

   • To be an effective contrarian, you have to understand the historical why behind the conventional wisdom before driving change.

3. First Principles & Questioning Requirements

   • Elon Musk, one of the great contrarians of today, is notorious at Tesla & SpaceX factories for impressing on his employees: “Question every requirement. Each should come with the name of the person who made it…Then you should question it, no matter how smart that person is. Requirements from smart people are the most dangerous, because people are less likely to question them.”⁽⁶⁾

   • Elon is world class at first principles thinking — the practice of breaking down a problem/situation/idea to it's constituent pieces through questioning every assumption about the given scenario

   • To be contrarian, you should think of issues “from scratch” and examine all received wisdom

4. Willingness To Be Wrong

   • You must be careful to avoid hubris. At all times, consider the possibility that you are in fact wrong, and the conventional wisdom is right.

An Open Secret

Mark Twain told us "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it's time to pause and reflect." And that really is the core of it. We should examine our assumptions, how we’ve been told things work, and why they are set up that way.

Once you start questioning how things work you'll discover an inspiring secret. Steve Jobs called it the great secret of life. The fact that the world around you was made by people no smarter than you or I. And we have the ability to shape the way the world works. This is an invitation to contrarian thinking. Everything you see around you — from the high jump to defense tech — can be rethought and reinvented.

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Sources:

• ⁽¹⁾ First Principles - Thomas Ricks

• ^{(2) (3) (4)}  Capitalism In America - Alan Greenspan

• ⁽⁵⁾  Riskophilia - Not Boring

• ⁽⁶⁾  Elon Musk - Walter Issacson